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Is the Chinese economy will collapse this decade, as Japan did in the 80s, early 90s?
Is the rise of the country and the growth of a myth? – $ 600 – $ 900 billion in bad property loans (one quarter of GDP). – Estimated 40% default rate in comparison with 20% in Japan in 1990 – Many loans made by the family / social relations and non-commercial. – Continally lowering the price of their exports, leading to profits drop
I would say that there is a real possibility of bulk good bubble-popping, but they'd probably recover, while Japan peaked in 1990 and is absolutely doomed to fall forever more. China has demographics much better than Japan. China could become as Japan 40 or 50 years – now I say it is more the potential ups and downs of China.
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